Internal Report

FZJ-2013-06231

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Konsistente Zukunftsbilder im Rahmen von Energieszenarien. Jülich, Forschungszentrum Jülich.

Voegele, S. (Corresponding author)FZJ* ; Hansen, P.FZJ* ; Kuckshinrichs, W.FZJ* ; Schürmann, K.FZJ* ; Schenk, O.FZJ* ; Pesch, T.FZJ* ; Heinrichs, H.FZJ* ; Markewitz, P.FZJ*

2013

Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/5681

Report No.: STE-Report 03/2013

Abstract: The generation of scenarios of future energy systems and its assessment within the scope of a sustainability approach are among the central tasks of energy systems analy‐sis. The IEK‐STE approach comprises 4 central steps: (1) generation of consistent energy futures, (2) modeling of energy systems, (3) development of an indicator set, suitable to characterize sustainability of energy systems, and (4) sustainability assessment. The report focuses on the first step (generation of consistent energy futures). Based on the cross‐impact balance approach 3 different energy futures are developed which com‐ply to a great extent to the challenge of consistency: (I) Increasing competition – ship‐wreck of climate protection policy, (II) Prosperity for everyone ‐ Europe’s pioneering task for climate protection policy is underachieved, and (III) Resource scarcity – Europe’s cli‐mate protection path succeeds in reductions of GHGs and energy demand. These energy futures provide the basis for the selection of assumptions and quantification of frame‐work data for quantitative energy scenarios in step 2.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (IEK-STE)

Research Program(s):

1. 151 - Transformation of Energy Systems (POF2-151) (POF2-151)
2. HITEC - Helmholtz Interdisciplinary Doctoral Training in Energy and Climate Research (HITEC) (HITEC-20170406) (HITEC-20170406)

Appears in the scientific report 2013

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Database coverage:

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