Journal Article

FZJ-2019-05207

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Cost Uncertainties in Energy System Optimization Models: A Quadratic Programming Approach for Avoiding Penny Switching Effects

Lopion, P. (Corresponding author)FZJ* ; Markewitz, P.FZJ* ; Stolten, D.FZJ* ; Robinius, M.FZJ*

2019
MDPI Basel

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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/23249  doi:10.3390/en12204006

Abstract: Designing the future energy supply in accordance with ambitious climate change mitigation goals is a challenging issue. Common tools for planning and calculating future investments in renewable and sustainable technologies are often linear energy system models based on cost optimization. However, input data and the underlying assumptions of future developments are subject to uncertainties that negatively affect the robustness of results. This paper introduces a quadratic programming approach to modifying linear, bottom-up energy system optimization models to take cost uncertainties into account. This is accomplished by implementing specific investment costs as a function of the installed capacity of each technology. In contrast to established approaches such as stochastic programming or Monte Carlo simulation, the computation time of the quadratic programming approach is only slightly higher than that of linear programming. The model’s outcomes were found to show a wider range as well as a more robust allocation of the considered technologies than the linear model equivalent.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Technoökonomische Systemanalyse (IEK-3)

Research Program(s):

1. 134 - Electrolysis and Hydrogen (POF3-134) (POF3-134)
2. ES2050 - Energie Sytem 2050 (ES2050) (ES2050)

Appears in the scientific report 2019

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Database coverage:
; ; ; Clarivate Analytics Master Journal List ; Current Contents - Engineering, Computing and Technology ; DOAJ Seal ; Ebsco Academic Search ; IF < 5 ; JCR ; SCOPUS ; Science Citation Index Expanded ; Web of Science Core Collection

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