Journal Article

FZJ-2022-04764

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

Bracher, J. (Corresponding author) ; Wolffram, D. ; Deuschel, J. ; Görgen, K. ; Ketterer, J. L. ; Ullrich, A. ; Abbott, S. ; Barbarossa, M. V. ; Bertsimas, D. ; Bhatia, S. ; Bodych, M. ; Bosse, N. I. ; Burgard, J. P. ; Castro, L. ; Fairchild, G. ; Fiedler, J. ; Fuhrmann, J. ; Funk, S. ; Gambin, A. ; Gogolewski, K. ; Heyder, S. ; Hotz, T. ; Kheifetz, Y. ; Kirsten, H. ; Krueger, T. ; Krymova, E. ; Leithäuser, N. ; Li, M. L. ; Meinke, J. H.FZJ* ; Miasojedow, B. ; Michaud, I. J. ; Mohring, J. ; Nouvellet, P. ; Nowosielski, J. M. ; Ozanski, T. ; Radwan, M. ; Rakowski, F. ; Scholz, M. ; Soni, S. ; Srivastava, A. ; Gneiting, T. ; Schienle, M. (Corresponding author)

2022
Springer Nature [London]

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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/32686  doi:10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8

Abstract: We compare forecasts of weekly case and death numbers for COVID-19 in Germany and Poland based on 15 different modelling approaches. These cover the period from January to April 2021 and address numbers of cases and deaths one and two weeks into the future, along with the respective uncertainties. We find that combining different forecasts into one forecast can enable better predictions. However, case numbers over longer periods were challenging to predict. Additional data sources, such as information about different versions of the SARS-CoV-2 virus present in the population, might improve forecasts in the future.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülich Supercomputing Center (JSC)

Research Program(s):

1. 5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation & Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511) (POF4-511)

Appears in the scientific report 2022

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Database coverage:
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