Journal Article

FZJ-2025-04511

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Explaining and predicting the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet

Mindlin, J. (Corresponding author) ; Shepherd, T. G.FZJ* ; Osman, M. ; Vera, C. S. ; Kretschmer, M.

2025
National Acad. of Sciences Washington, DC

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1073/pnas.2500697122  doi:10.34734/FZJ-2025-04511

Abstract: The summertime eddy-driven jet (EDJ) in the Southern Hemisphere is a critical mediatorbetween regional climate and large-scale phenomena, guiding synoptic systems thatshape weather patterns. Uncertainties in global climate models (GCMs)-particularlyin projecting changes in remote drivers like tropical warming, stratospheric polarvortex strengthening, and asymmetric tropical Pacific warming-hinder predictions ofEDJ trends and associated regional outcomes. In this study, we develop a causalframework that combines observations, reanalysis datasets, and storylines estimatedfrom the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) projections to attributepast EDJ changes and predict plausible future trajectories. Our findings indicate thattropical warming has evolved along the low end of plausible CMIP trajectories, whilethe stratospheric polar vortex shows robust strengthening, both strongly influencingobserved EDJ trends. Our results suggest that 50% of the observed EDJ latitudeshift can be directly attributed to global warming (GW), and the remaining 50% toremote drivers whose attribution toGWremains uncertain. Importantly,GCMsappearto accurately estimate the observed latitudinal shifts but underestimate the observedstrengthening of the EDJ, while the proposed storylines are able to capture the observedtrend. By integrating causal inference with climate storylines, our approach narrowsthe divide between attribution and prediction, offering a physically grounded methodto estimate plausible pathways of future climate change.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülich Supercomputing Center (JSC)

Research Program(s):

1. 5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation & Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511) (POF4-511)

Appears in the scientific report 2025

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Database coverage:
; ; ; BIOSIS Previews ; Biological Abstracts ; Clarivate Analytics Master Journal List ; Current Contents - Agriculture, Biology and Environmental Sciences ; Current Contents - Life Sciences ; Ebsco Academic Search ; Essential Science Indicators ; IF >= 10 ; JCR ; National-Konsortium ; SCOPUS ; Science Citation Index Expanded ; Web of Science Core Collection ; Zoological Record

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