Journal Article

FZJ-2026-00066

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png The benefits of exploring a large scenario space for future energy systems

Frey, U. J. (Corresponding author) ; Cao, K.-K. (Corresponding author) ; Sasanpour, S. ; Buschmann, J. ; Breuer, T.FZJ*

2026
Springer Nature [London]

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1038/s41467-025-67593-9  doi:10.34734/FZJ-2026-00066

Abstract: Energy scenario analysis with optimization approaches rarely goes beyond a small number of scenarios. Disadvantages include limited coverage of uncertainties and assumptions, and a limited ability to provide robust policy advice. We present an approach that enables the multi-criterial evaluation of more than 11,000 scenarios and demonstrate it for the German power system. We vary both a wide range of input parameters and method choices. The resulting scenarios are assessed through a number of indicators on affordability, supply-security and sustainability. The most significant impacts on the results stem from considering multiple weather years. Furthermore, we estimate the number of runs required for robust energy systems analyses – well over 100 scenarios are needed. Nevertheless, fewer scenarios may be sufficient for limited scopes. Our analysis also underlines a challenge for future energy system design: cost-efficient decarbonization while conserving natural resources.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülich Supercomputing Center (JSC)

Research Program(s):

1. 5112 - Cross-Domain Algorithms, Tools, Methods Labs (ATMLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511) (POF4-511)
2. Verbundvorhaben: UNSEEN ' Bewertung der Unsicherheiten in linear optimierenden Energiesystem-Modellen unter Zuhilfenahme Neuronaler Netze, Teilvorhaben: Entwicklung einer integrierten HPC-Workflow Umgebung zur Kopplung von Optimierungsmethoden mit Methode (03EI1004F) (03EI1004F)
3. ATMLAO - ATML Application Optimization and User Service Tools (ATMLAO) (ATMLAO)

Appears in the scientific report 2026

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