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| Journal Article | FZJ-2020-02390 |
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2022
Wiley-Intersience
London [u.a.]
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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/30934 doi:10.1002/er.7448
Abstract: In order to cope with increasing complexity in energy systems due to rapid changes and uncertain future developments, the evaluation of multiple scenarios is essential for sound scientific system analyses. Hence, efficient modeling approaches and complexity reductions are urgently required. However, there is a lack of scientific analyses going beyond the scope of traditional energy system modeling. For this reason, we investigate the potential of metamodels to reduce the complexity of energy system modeling. In our explorative study, we investigate their potential and limits for applications in the fields of electricity dispatch and design optimization for heating systems. We first select a suitable metamodeling approach by conducting pre-tests on a small scale. Based on this, we selected artificial neural networks due to their good performance compared to other approaches and the multiple possibilities of network topologies and hyperparameter settings. As for the dispatch model, we show that a high accuracy of price replication can be achieved while substantially reducing the runtimes per investigated scenario (from 2 hours on average down to less than 30 seconds). With the design optimization model, we find double-edged results: while we also achieve a substantial reduction of runtime in this case (from ~0.8 hours to less than 30 seconds), the simultaneous forecasting of several interdependent variables proved to be problematic and the accuracy of the metamodel shows to be insufficient in many cases. Overall, we demonstrate that metamodeling is a suitable approach to complemement traditional energy system modeling rather than to replace them: the loss of traceability in (black-box) metamodels indicates the importance of hybrid solutions that combine fundamental models with metamodels.
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