Journal Article

FZJ-2021-02631

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Uncertainty Modelling in Metamodels for Fire Risk Analysis

Berchtold, F. ; Arnold, L. (Corresponding author)FZJ* ; Knaust, C. ; Thöns, S.

2021
MDPI Basel

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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/28151  doi:10.3390/safety7030050

Abstract: In risk-related research of fire safety engineering, metamodels are often applied to approximate the results of complex fire and evacuation simulations. This approximation may cause epistemic uncertainties, and the inherent uncertainties of evacuation simulations may lead to aleatory uncertainties. However, neither the epistemic ‘metamodel uncertainty’ nor the aleatory ‘inherent uncertainty’ have been included in the results of the metamodels for fire safety engineering. For this reason, this paper presents a metamodel that includes metamodel uncertainty and inherent uncertainty in the results of a risk analysis. This metamodel is based on moving least squares; the metamodel uncertainty is derived from the prediction interval. The inherent uncertainty is modelled with an original approach, directly using all replications of evacuation scenarios without the assumption of a specific probability distribution. This generic metamodel was applied on a case study risk analysis of a road tunnel and showed high accuracy. It was found that metamodel uncertainty and inherent uncertainty have clear effects on the results of the risk analysis, which makes their consideration important.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Zivile Sicherheitsforschung (IAS-7)

Research Program(s):

1. 5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation & Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511) (POF4-511)
2. ORPHEUS - Optimierung der Rauchableitung und Personenführung in U-Bahnhöfen: Experimente und Simulationen (BMBF-13N13266) (BMBF-13N13266)
3. Pyrolysis Modeling (jjsc27_20190501) (jjsc27_20190501)

Appears in the scientific report 2021

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Database coverage:
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