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| Hauptseite > Publikationsdatenbank > Multi-Model Ensemble Projections of Winter Extreme Temperature Events on the Chinese Mainland |
| Hauptseite > Publikationsdatenbank > Multi-Model Ensemble Projections of Winter Extreme Temperature Events on the Chinese Mainland |
| Journal Article | FZJ-2023-00154 |
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2022
MDPI AG
Basel
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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/33405 doi:10.3390/ijerph19105902
Abstract: Based on the downscaling data of multi-model ensembles of 26 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, this study calculated the extreme cli-mate indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and the warm winter extreme grade indices to explore winter climate response in the Chinese mainland under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways. The results showed that the temperature in winter increased overall, with the highest temperature in-creases of 0.31 ℃/10a (Celsius per decade) (SSP245) and 0.51 ℃/10a (SSP585) and the lowest temperature increases of 0.30 ℃/10a (SSP245) and 0.49 ℃/10a (SSP585). Warm-related extreme weather events such as warm days and warm spell duration indices showed an increasing trend, whereas cold-related extreme weather events such as cold spell duration indices, cold nights, ice days, and frost days showed a decreasing trend. On the regional scale, the maximum temperature increased by more than 2 ℃/10a (SSP245) and 0.4 ℃/10a (SSP585), except in South China, and the minimum temperature increased faster in Qinghai-Tibet and Northeast China compared to elsewhere on the Chinese mainland. Compared with that under SSP585, the frequency and inten-sity of warm winters in the latter half of the 21st century were lower under SSP245. At the end of the 21st century, under the SSP245 scenario, warm winter frequency in most regions will be re-duced to below 60%, but under the SSP585 scenario, it will be more than 80%. Population expo-sures all showed a downward trend, mainly due to the reduction of warm winter events and the decline of the population under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. If the greenhouse gas emission path is controlled in the SSP245 scenario, the population exposure risk in warm winters can be decreased by 25.87%. This study observed a consistent warming trend on the Chi-nese mainland under all SSPs in the 21st century and found that stricter emission reduction poli-cies can effectively decrease the population exposure to warm winters.
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