Journal Article

FZJ-2024-06460

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?

Sippel, S. (Corresponding author) ; Barnes, C. ; Cadiou, C. ; Fischer, E. ; Kew, S. ; Kretschmer, M. ; Philip, S. ; Shepherd, T. G.FZJ* ; Singh, J. ; Vautard, R. ; Yiou, P.

2024
Copernicus Publications Göttingen

This record in other databases:    

Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024  doi:10.34734/FZJ-2024-06460

Abstract: Central European winters have warmed markedlysince the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associatedwith severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure,and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipatestorylines of worst-case cold winter conditions andto understand whether an extremely cold winter, such as thecoldest winter on the historical record of Germany in 1963(-6.3°C or -3.4 sigma seasonal December–January–February(DJF) temperature anomaly relative to 1981–2010), is stillpossible in a warming climate. Here, we first show based onmultiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulationconditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonalcold anomaly of about -4.9 to -4.7°C (best estimatesacross methods) under present-day climate. This would rankas the second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second,we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditionsbased on two independent rare event sampling methods (climatemodel boosting and empirical importance sampling): awinter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in centralEurope today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazardsbecome less frequent and less intense in a warming climateoverall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of anextremely cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation andincreased vulnerability.

---

Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülich Supercomputing Center (JSC)
2. Stratosphäre (ICE-4)

Research Program(s):

1. 2113 - Future Weather and Extremes (POF4-211) (POF4-211)
2. 5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation & Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511) (POF4-511)
3. 2112 - Climate Feedbacks (POF4-211) (POF4-211)

Appears in the scientific report 2024

---

Database coverage:
; ; ; Clarivate Analytics Master Journal List ; DOAJ Seal ; Emerging Sources Citation Index ; SCOPUS ; Web of Science Core Collection

---