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| Home > Publications database > The Projected Changes in the Surface Energy Budget of the CMIP5 and EURO-CORDEX Models: Are We Heading toward Wetter Growing Seasons in Central Europe? |
| Home > Publications database > The Projected Changes in the Surface Energy Budget of the CMIP5 and EURO-CORDEX Models: Are We Heading toward Wetter Growing Seasons in Central Europe? |
| Journal Article | FZJ-2025-02440 |
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2025
AMS
Boston, Mass.
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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1175/JHM-D-24-0017.1 doi:10.34734/FZJ-2025-02440
Abstract: We analyze the surface energy budget from four climate model ensembles and its future changes in thetwenty-first century under the RCP8.5 or shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 scenario. High-resolution Europeandomain of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) regional climate models(RCMs) and their driving CMIP5 global climate models (CMIP5-D) are first tested in central Europe against observationaldatasets. Evaluation reveals the added value of RCMs in terms of spatial variability and smaller biases. CMIP5-D are af-fected by the positive bias of global irradiance that propagates into other radiation and heat fluxes. There are strong differ-ences in the projected surface energy budget components between RCMs and CMIP5-D. There is an increase in globalirradiance for most of the year in CMIP5-D and other GCM ensembles that is translated into a year-round enhancementof the absorbed solar energy and balanced by higher latent heat flux, except in summer, when the sensible heat flux risesstrongly. Together with strong warming and reduced precipitation in summer, this leads to warm, sunny, and dry conditionswith reduced evapotranspiration and higher drought stress for vegetation. In the RCMs, the reduction in global irradiancedominates, and it is translated into a round-year reduction in the net balance of longwave radiation and stronger latentheat flux. The first months of the growing season show weaker warming associated with higher evapotranspiration and pre-cipitation. In summer, precipitation drops and global irradiance and warming rise, but they fall behind the changes in theGCMs. Compared to GCMs, there are less visible signs of conditions leading to a reduction in evapotranspiration or ashortage of soil water in the RCMs in summer.
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